Did Kant invent fractals ?

I need you to read this passage from Kant's "Critique of Judgement" as seen in an article about "Emergence" and "Self-Organization" on Wikipedia. Read how he describes a self-organizing system and look at the Mandelbrotian ensemble that is below it ... Mind-blowing !

In such a natural product as this every part is thought as owing its presence to the agency of all the remaining parts, and also as existing for the sake of the others and of the whole, that is as an instrument, or organ... The part must be an organ producing the other parts—each, consequently, reciprocally producing the others... Only under these conditions and upon these terms can such a product be an organized and self-organized being, and, as such, be called a physical end.

"The future of search is verbs"

The title is a quote from none other than Bill Gates. For having used Google too much and for not having been disappointed too often, you might be thinking that the business of search is a quasi-monopoly and that the winner has been declared. But you couldn't be farther from the truth. For the fight is at its paroxysm and the months to come will be determining. One could draw a timeline of search engines' recent battles :

  1. A fight for accuracy: An algorithmic fight Google won using crowd wisdom, links pointing to a given page and semantic precision
  2. A fight for speed: Search engines have been trying to be the fastest in every field (from video to images, to web pages) and again Google has proved its superiority with Google instant lately
  3. A fight for relevance: This round has been involving a social dimension and ... Bing is the winner here thanks to its collaboration with Facebook
  4. A fight for prediction: And this one's winner is yet to be determined. And this one's winner is the one "that takes it all"

Prediction doesn't mean your search engine will suggest pages even before you type anything (though this might be the fifth round, where every single personal information you've provided would be taken into consideration) but rather that when you do type in something, instead of suggesting a series of blue links, the search engine will take you directly to the page you 'want'.

That's when the quote that serves as a title takes all its meaning and where Esther Dyson's August 2010 article about the subject comes in handy :

" when people search, they aren't just looking for nouns or information; they are looking for action. They want to book a flight, reserve a table, buy a product, cure a hangover, take a class, fix a leak, resolve an argument, or occasionally find a person, for which Facebook is very handy. They mostly want to find something in order to do something."

It's true ! When I search for "cheapest flights", I want my search engine to take me to the page where I book flights more often or to one that corresponds to my tastes and habits. Search engines have that kind of context : They've tracing our every click ! Hence it is time to take it to the next level, that's the least that can be done, in exchange for all that data exhaust information.

So back to you very dear readers, how do you see it : How do you see the future of search ? What does Google 2020 look like in your imagination ? And most of all, how would you like it to look like ?

Linking two passions : Quantum mechanics and Fractals

To all those who like me are still searching for a whole-encompassing theory, this is an article from the New Scientist by Mark Buchanan I'd like to share with you. The relationship with Nanoeconomics will be revealed soon enough in the project I'm working on

Can Fractals makes sense of the quantum world?

Quantum theory just seems too weird to believe. Particles can be in more than one place at a time. They don't exist until you measure them. Spookier still, they can even stay in touch when they are separated by great distances.

Einstein thought this was all a bit much, believing it to be evidence of major problems with the theory, as many critics still suspect today. Quantum enthusiasts point to the theory's extraordinary success in explaining the behaviour of atoms, electrons and other quantum systems. They insist we have to accept the theory as it is, however strange it may seem.

But what if there were a way to reconcile these two opposing views, by showing how quantum theory might emerge from a deeper level of non-weird physics?

If you listen to physicist Tim Palmer, it begins to sound plausible. What has been missing, he argues, are some key ideas from an area of science that most quantum physicists have ignored: the science of fractals, those intricate patterns found in everything from fractured surfaces to oceanic flows (see What is a fractal?).

Take the mathematics of fractals into account, says Palmer, and the long-standing puzzles of quantum theory may be much easier to understand. They might even dissolve away.

It is an argument that is drawing attention from physicists around the world. "His approach is very interesting and refreshingly different," says physicist Robert Spekkens of the Perimeter Institute for Theoretical Physics in Waterloo, Canada. "He's not just trying to reinterpret the usual quantum formalism, but actually to derive it from something deeper."

That Palmer is making this argument may seem a little odd, given that he is a climate scientist working at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting in Reading, UK. It makes more sense when you learn that Palmer studied general relativity at the University of Oxford, working under the same PhD adviser as Stephen Hawking.

So while Palmer has spent the last 20 years establishing a reputation as a leading mathematical climatologist, he has also continued to explore the mysteries of his first interest, quantum theory (see "Quantum ambitions").

"It has taken 20 years of thinking," says Palmer, "but I do think that most of the paradoxes of quantum theory may well have a simple and comprehensible resolution."

Arguments over quantum theory have raged since the 1920s, starting with a series of famous exchanges between Einstein and the Danish physicist Niels Bohr.

Bohr and his supporters believed that the theory's successful description of atoms and radiation meant you should abandon old philosophical concepts, such as the idea that objects have definite properties even when no one is there to measure them.

Einstein and his followers countered that such radicalism was wildly premature. They argued that much of the quantum weirdness was nothing more than a lack of adequate knowledge. Find a quantum system's "hidden variables", Einstein suspected, and quantum theory might make common sense, a view that quantum enthusiasts thought was ultra conservative and out of touch. The argument rages to this day.

Fractals unite Palmer believes his work shows it is possible that Einstein and Bohr may have been emphasising different aspects of the same subtle physics. "My hypothesis is motivated by two concepts that wouldn't have been known to the founding fathers of quantum theory," he says: black holes and fractals.

Palmer's ideas begin with gravity. The force that makes apples fall and holds planets in their orbit is also the only fundamental physical process capable of destroying information. It works like this: the hot gas and plasma making up a star contain an enormous amount of information locked in the atomic states of a huge number of particles. If the star collapses under its own gravity to form a black hole, most of the atoms are sucked in, resulting in almost all of that detailed information vanishing. Instead, the black hole can be described completely using just three quantities - its mass, angular momentum and electric charge.

Many physicists accept this view, but Palmer thinks they haven't pursued its implications far enough. As a system loses information, the number of states you need to describe it diminishes. Wait long enough and you will find that the system reaches a point where no more states can be lost. In mathematical terms, this special subset of states is known as an invariant set. Once a state lies in this subset, it stays in it forever.

A simple way of thinking about it is to imagine a swinging pendulum that slows down due to friction before eventually coming to a complete standstill. Here the invariant set is the one that describes the pendulum at rest.

Because black holes destroy information, Palmer suggests that the universe has an invariant set too, though it is far more complicated than the pendulum.

Complex systems are affected by chaos, which means that their behaviour can be influenced greatly by tiny changes. According to mathematics, the invariant set of a chaotic system is a fractal.

Fractal invariant sets have unusual geometric properties. If you plotted one on a map it would trace out the same intricate structure as a coastline. Zoom in on it and you would find more and more detail, with the patterns looking similar to the original unzoomed image.

Gravity and mathematics alone, Palmer suggests, imply that the invariant set of the universe should have a similarly intricate structure, and that the universe is trapped forever in this subset of all possible states. This might help to explain why the universe at the quantum level seems so bizarre.

For example, it may point to a natural explanation for one of the biggest puzzles of quantum physics, what physicists refer to as its "contextuality". Quantum theory seems to insist that particles do not have any properties before they are measured. Instead, the very act of measurement brings their properties into being. Or, put another way, quantum systems have meaning only in the context of the particular experiments performed on them.

Ever since Einstein, many physicists have hoped that a new approach might go beyond quantum theory and find a way to restore belief in objective and independent properties. But in 1967, mathematicians Simon Kochen and Ernst Specker published a theorem showing that this dream, if possible, cannot be done in quite the way physicists would like.

Central to Kochen and Specker's theorem is a thought experiment. Say you choose to measure different properties of a quantum system, such as the position or velocity of a quantum particle. Each time you do so, you will find that your measurements agree with the predictions of quantum theory. Kochen and Specker showed that it is impossible to conceive a hypothesis that can make the same successful predictions as quantum theory if the particles have pre-existing properties, as would be the case in classical physics.

This result has driven many physicists to reach a startling conclusion about how to interpret quantum theory. Either you have to abandon the existence of any kind of objective reality, instead believing that objects have no properties until they are measured, or you have to accept that distant parts of the universe share a spooky connection that allows them to share information even when the distance and timing means that no signal could have passed between them without travelling faster than light.

Palmer's idea suggests a third possibility - that the kinds of experiments considered by Kochen and Specker are simply impossible to get answers from and hence irrelevant.

The key is the invariant set. According to Palmer's hypothesis, the invariant set contains all the physically realistic states of the universe. So any state that isn't part of the invariant set cannot physically exist.

Suppose you perform the Kochen-Specker thought experiment and measure the position of an electron. Then you ask what you would have found if you repeated the experiment, only this time measuring the electron's velocity instead.

According to Palmer, when you repeat the experiment you are testing a hypothetical universe that is identical to the real one except that the position-measuring equipment is replaced with velocity-measuring equipment.

This is where the fractal nature of the invariant set matters. Consider a place of interest you want to visit along a coastline. If you get the coordinates even slightly wrong you could end up in the sea rather than where you want to be. In the same way, if the hypothetical universe does not lie on the fractal, then that universe is not in the invariant set and so it cannot physically exist.

Due to the spare and wispy nature of fractals, even subtle changes in the hypothetical universes could cause them to fall outside the invariant set. In this way, Spekkens says, Palmer's hypothesis may help to make some sense of quantum contextuality.

"I think his approach is really interesting and novel," says Spekkens. "Other physicists have shown how you can find a way out of the Kochen-Specker problem, but this work actually provides a mechanism to explain the theorem."

Following on from this, Palmer believes that many other features of quantum theory also fall into place. For example, quantum theory is famous for making only statistical predictions - it can only tell you the probability of finding an electron with its quantum-mechanical spin pointing up.

This arises naturally, suggests Palmer, because quantum theory is blind to the intricate fractal structure of the invariant set. Just as our eyes cannot discern the smallest details in fractal patterns, quantum theory only sees "coarse grain approximations", as if it is looking through fuzzy spectacles.

Other physicists seem inspired by the novelty of Palmer's approach. "What makes this really interesting is that it gets away from the usual debates over multiple universes and hidden variables and so on," says Bob Coecke, a physicist at the University of Oxford. "It suggests there might be an underlying physical geometry that physics has just missed, which is radical and very positive."

Coecke points out that very few scientists working on fundamental physics have explored how fractals might be incorporated into the theory, even though they are commonplace in other parts of physics.

Palmer is hoping that will change. In a paper submitted to the journal Proceedings of the Royal Society A, he shows how the basic idea can account for quantum uncertainty, contextuality and other quantum puzzles (http://www.arxiv.org/abs/0812.1148).

Many details still need to be fleshed out, says Coecke. "Palmer manages to explain some quantum phenomena," he says, "but he hasn't yet derived the whole rigid structure of the theory. This is really necessary."

Palmer accepts the criticism and is hopeful that he will be able to improve his theory over time. In the best of worlds, he thinks his framework may provide a way to finally reunite the warring parties of Einstein's and Bohr's followers.

After all, the theory backs Einstein's view that quantum theory really is incomplete. It is, Palmer says, blind to the fractal structure of the invariant set. If it wasn't, it would see that the world is not only deterministic, but it never exhibits any spooky effects.

On the other hand, it also agrees with the view of Bohr and his followers: the properties of individual quantum systems are not independent of the entire world, especially the experiments we humans use to explore them. We are stuck with the disturbing fact that how we measure always influences what we find.

For now, quantum theory remains mysterious but its air of mystique may not last forever. Quantum ambitions

When Tim Palmer finished his PhD in physics at the University of Oxford 30 years ago, he had the opportunity to work as a postdoc with Stephen Hawking at the University of Cambridge. The hot topic in theoretical physics back then was supergravity, a theory that aimed to include gravity in a universe with 11 dimensions. Despite Hawking's enthusiasm for the idea, Palmer remained lukewarm. Supergravity takes quantum theory as an unquestioned starting point and then tries to bring gravity within its fold, an approach Palmer found unappealing.

"I felt that quantum theory was at best a provisional theory," Palmer recalls.

Instead, he switched to climate science where he rapidly established an international reputation. Today Palmer is known for pioneering a method called ensemble forecasting, which incorporates the role of chaos to create climate forecasts that include specific estimates of their own accuracy. But even as Palmer's work became widely influential - so much so that he has taken a key role on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - he could never forget the quantum puzzles that so occupied him before.

What is a fractal? Fractals are geometrical shapes that aren't smooth like circles or rectangles. They are irregular structures with the same structure repeating on ever finer scales. No matter how much you blow up a picture of a fractal, it will always look the same.

The natural world contains many examples of fractals, including ferns, broccoli, river networks, blood vessels and coastlines.

Mark Buchanan is a writer based in Cambridge, UK

The theory of the Centripetal Internet - Social Networks : One Ring to Rule them All ?

In the earlier posts of the "Theory of the Centripetal Internet" series, I made it clear that :

  1. Whatever the potential globalizing power of the social tools and the Web in general, the Internet is reflecting our society and habits : The Web is more local than global (Centripetal in other big words :) )
  2. Moreover, this reality among people's use of the web has resulted in a trend inside the web itself. Websites are serving us more of what we want to see : Not only is it local, the Web is becoming more and more personal (to such an extent that websites will end up knowing us better than we do)
  3. Where do you go from here ?

As most of you I'm sure, I believe Facebook IS the name of the game for the moment. But for how long ?

Not too long now I believe. I mean consider how absurd it is :

  1. That you have ONE network for all your social circles (family, friends both the study kind and the party-crazy kind, work colleagues, people with whom you share interests).
  2. With ALL of whom you share ALL of your interests (technology, music, work, what you wrote, who you're dating ...).
  3. Is there anything more inefficient than sharing so broadly when you know that only a bunch of persons in your network will be interested and may react to your post (the geeky friends commenting on a tech post) but probably won't because EVERYBODY else can see it and pitch in with less relevant comments

And NO, Facebook groups isn't solving the issue ! So no Frodo, your sad eyes won't change anything to it : One Ring WON'T rule them all

Because as Mark Suster points out, every one of your statuses is destined to a given group :

Focus is key to Efficiency : Hitting the most relevant group is vital to spread your message. Hence behold the future :

"Situationist' is an Iphone app for complete strangers to meet through random, personal acts. So for example :

  • You log in and put "High Five me"
  • A moderator makes sure it's not something like "Spank me with a leather glove" and allows it to go online
  • Some other "Situationist" logs in and sees where you are relative to him
  • He decides to meet you, recognizes you from your picture
  • And actually high five-s you !

So the idea here is a mix of foursquare and "Improv anywhere" as John Pavlus points out. But the important thing is the presence of a moderator : The moderator makes the group more exclusive. He limits it to the artsy, improvisation fans and keeps the rest out, in a way. So it's as if "Situationist" created a smaller social circle for these risk-taking, break-the-day's-routine people : it's more exclusive.

EXCLUSIVE. That's the world, that's why Facebook will lose its steam or at least why others will we able to compete. Because Facebook lost its niche by going mainstream and leaving exclusivity.

So the new trend will see the rise of "true" social networks revolving around specific areas :

  • Jumo for social issues
  • Quora for (let's be honest) rather nerdy/techy/geeky questions
  • LinkedIn for professional purposes
  • I'd add Farmville for farm fanatics :)

But the truth is this list is VERY long. The trend IS already here. If it hasn't shown clearly, except for those I gave as an example, it's because typically, when people group by passion, interest or specific ties, critical mass takes more time to be reached. But there is no doubt that "True" Social Networks are the future.

The Rise of Do-It-Yourself Science

As far as I search, though it seems clear the concept of DIY (Do It Yourself) emerged with the first suggestions of personal house improvements in various 1950's US magazines, the rise of the very term, the concept clearly coincides with Andy Warhol's ventures and attempts of popularization of DIY art around the 1970's.

Comically, in order to unveil these facts, I used DIY history/linguistic tools ! Below is a graph showing the use of the term DIY throughout the 19th and 20th century in all the books Google digitized from that period (we are talking about millions of books) :

But this linguistic trend is yet to translate into reality. And in much more than one field :

I - DIY drones (#WTF) :

TO those of you who read "The Long Tail" and researched the Wired editor in chief Chris Anderson, you might've found out about his "other" passion, namely : building drones !

This is typically Long-Tail-ish of course. DIY is all about the rise of individuals. And I guess a drone fanatic won't ever mistake this Chris Anderson for the TED curator Chris Anderson. He is BIG when it comes to drones.

II- DIY biology :

As incredible as this might sound now, it IS very real. In many places across the world, just as some decades ago, Steve Jobs and Bill Gates were tinkering in their garages, miles away from IBM, trying to build their own computers, today, in a number of garages across the world, amateur biologists are searching for pharmaceutical solutions to problems Big Pharma (Thing Pfizer and Co.) hasn't been able to solve.

You can probably see the white door behind the lab. YES. It IS a garage door. And to be honest, I know how this feels but there is no reason to be afraid. Nobody will force you to take an amateur developed pill. These individuals are mostly biology grads and doctors who are passionate about their field and stunned by the barriers to entry to drug development and experimentation. So they Do It Themselves. And success stories aren't rare : Dr. Hugh Rienhoff made the cover of Nature in 2007 for his DIY DNA efforts ! He actually tried to discover the genetic mechanisms behind his daughter’s rare condition. The picture below says it all :

Joseph Jackson calls it The Open Science Shift

III - DIY nutrition :

This part I could write an entire post about. But consider this : If you've ever consulted a dietitian and saw no results, stop seeing dietitians ! They follow the rules of 10 and 20 year old books while the largest advances in nutritional science have been made in the last 2 years. I'd love to draw a parallel with Wikipedia and Encyclopedia Britannica here. One reason why the latter disappeared and the former survived is because of constant updates and experienced, passionate users' involvement and voluntary enrichment of content.

When it comes to diets, do yourself a favor : Do the research and Do It Yourself ! Google is your friend

IV- DIY pretty much everything :

To those of you who've been following Lifehacker for some time now, you certainly know that DIY has always been very big among tech savvy individuals, and more particularly among "hackers". The hacking approach has a lot in common with the DIY one. De-construct, Understand, Reconstruct. The technicality of the title of the video below is just hilarious.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_KgMbOU8Wo&feature=player_embedded]

V - DIY history / linguistics :

In a way yes. Go check Google's Books Ngram Viewer which allows you to search the occurrence of any word in all (and that's a whole lot) the books Google digitized until now. Or if you don't feel like tinkering, check the examples Data is Beautiful gives. All of them are hilarious but this one's pretty good in its own category (Age-old debates) :)

VI - DIY astronomy :

I guess the following speaks for itself :

VII - DIY Economics :

I guess you saw that one coming, right ? It is an economics blog after all. Let me clarify a couple of things before suggesting to all the readers who got to this point an interesting experiment. To Do It Yourself, you need 3 things: the raw material, the tools and probably the passion so that things actually get done. Let's see through this then:

  1. In Economics, as long as you don't go into experimental economics (think Dan Ariely and all lab-based Economics) the raw material is the data. In other words, with the Open Governmental Data trend, the available Internet Data (think Google searches, dating sites ...) and the Social Networks data (Think Twitter, I don't put dating sites here, but I do need to review that whole taxonomy), data isn't what's missing
  2. Economists' tools have been around for years actually. They're called Excel ! And when it comes to econometrics, any statistics aficionado will find a way to download SAS, Eviews or R (which is free).
  3. So all the ingredients are here to turn everybody into an economist. And I know the passion is there right ? Everybody has an economic theory or at least a point of view on where things are going economically speaking. Having access to a lot of information about any given subject, usually gives us the illusion that we could be experts in that field and since the most accessible information around us today (newspapers, e-newspapers ...) is economic and political information, we end up thinking of ourselves as potential economic and political advisors.

And that's not wrong ! We could be ! Especially in economics. You'll be told however that your skills won't compare to that of an economist. I beg to disagree. If you are passionate the way I see passion : meaning obsessive enough to read effing EVERYTHING about a subject and be thorough once you've got an idea in your head, then all you need is a framework that simplifies your work : A tool that allows you to use all the available data out there. And guess what : it's here !

So if you're still reading, here's my proposition : Do It Yourself Economics. And here is the framework that gives you access to data with simple tools :

Google Public Data

Google Domestic Trends (Google's very own indexes of the economy ! )

Google finance

Google trends (Same logic as Google indexes : the idea is that what people are searching for is extremely revelatory)

Research.ly (swift through every imaginable detail in Twitter)

Now, in exchange for that information, I want you to come back to me with RESULTS. Explore an idea you have, tinker with a question you've been asking yourself about the economy or society, scratch that passion, do the job, and show me the magic ! You are now officially a DIY Economist, class of 2011 !

Humanism 2.0 ↔ Nanoeconomics

In an incredibly insightful talk, David Brooks talks about a new trend in social sciences. One that puts the human being as he is (not as he should be, meaning rational or ethical or fair) at the center of every social theory, and at the heart of the interest of every social scientist. This is a fundamental shift in paradigm that Brooks managed to encpasulate in a 20 minute talk. Here's a 3-bullet point simplified history of social sciences and their development :

I - Paradigm shift:

In a way or another, the premises of the French enlightenment moved in to form the foundations of social sciences, probably because they originated in Europe. If these premises had to be boiled down to one word, that would : Reason. But Brooks says, and rightly so, that Adam Smith and David Hume, on the other side of the English Channel had it right : Emotions and feelings have the uphand.

II - Method shift:

To understand how this kind of paradigmatic change translates into a methodotological shift, we need to take the example of law. See on the one hand the French law, governed by an all mighty set of rules that is referred to in first instance. Then take the English common law which logic is different starting with the very case the judge is handling, referring to similar cases, if any, and resting primarily not on the set of rules but on the judge's sense of things. In that respect, English common law points out the uniqueness of every case, and does not try to identify each case to what might concern it inside the all mighty set of rules. The approach is more ... Personalized

III - Uniqueness, emotions, feelings ... re-assessed:

And that is the shift happening in every social science : The uniqueness of individuals is being re-assessed. Reason is a common denominator, emotions and feelings are what give each of us our uniqueness. Brooks was probably thinking about Dan Ariely's work on irrationality and feelings, about behavioral economics more generally. But the truth is that Nanoeconomics, through the promotion of the use of Massive Passive Publically-Available data is also looking into individuals' uniqueness, scrapping their feelings and emotions and tossing reason for a second to see the real nature of economic humanity.

And there, at that very point, starts the new wave. Sounds a bit naive but Spider-man's uncle was right : "With great powers comes great responsibility". Social scientists have the power today, thanks to data, to see much more than they used to. This empowerment is bound to fundamentally change their respective disciplines. It ought to.

Bring on the humanistic revolution !

From tweet to street : Raising an army 101

So the idea here is simple : " How do you go from tweet to street ? " which primarily means " How do you go from inspiration to action ? ". I owe my inpiration to the amazing think tank TED Active put up for the Social Networks project. The group reached the conclusion that targeted tweets (Direct Messages actually), Facebook messages and mails to the right persons were far more effective than general tweeting and unfocused Facebook statuses. This meant in a way that the the same principles that governed large-scale marketing were to be applied in the realm of individual use of social media be it for self-promotion or cause militancy. In other words and and more figuratively, the best way to raise a virtual army , to take things from plain tweeting to actual action (hitting the street for example) rests on three premises :

  1. Be the general YOU would like to follow: Be yourself, be trustful and be generous with your knowledge. Vouch for the people you trust and do to your troops what you would do for a friend
  2. Choose your generals wisely: When on a mission (promoting an idea, spreading a message, inviting people to be part of a march ...) and you want things done, be sure you are assigning the right generals for the mission. Don't simply send a messgae to the whole army. That is counter-productive, counter-efficient. Targeting the right people with the right networks and the right knowledge is key for social turnarounds.
  3. Shout softly: The way you convey a message is more important than the message itself. You want it to be simply expressed, visually rich. Your generals will get it quicker and action will hence follow more rapidly. As you know, people aren't sheep so in order not to treat them cheaply, you might want to tailor-fit your message

These might remind you of the three criteria Malcolm Gladwell considers necessary to make something tip (The law of the few, the stickiness factor and the context). Now whether Galdwell would make for a good military general, I'll let you ponder on that (excuse the pretty bad photoshopping) :

 

So if you want to spread that message, make your cause known, make a product trend, know this : As much in the world of targeted advertising and marketing as in the world of generals and soldiers, focus is key. In other words:

  1. Less is more
  2. Small is Big

So how do you turn inspiration into action ? Simple : You can't. But your network can. Only it's never about sharing with the biggest number of people. It's about sharing with the right people. Laying these solid foundations are what's going to get you to critical mass.

The theory of the centripetal web : Is Google the shrink of the future ?

In a soon to be published TED talk (which content I won't reveal), Eli Pariser got a general standing ovation for an idea which challenges our conventionnal perception of the web's development but reflects the premises of the CENTREPETAL WEB perfectly. The Internet is becoming much more local than global. And one reason is that it's becoming much more personnal. The next time one of your friends and yourself are sitting next to each other, each behind your laptops, try out an experiment : Search for the word "Lybia" as Fraser suggests. Both of you. You will surprisingly notice that the results are quite different. That is because Google's algorithms take into account every click you two have ever made on their search page hence concluding what your interests are. Though Libya is raging with political unrest, all you might get are economic news about oil since you're into oil stock trading. And your friend, who's a pacifist, might get the political news, and most probably from a democrat point of view since he's been clicking on democrat links.

Here is Subject A's results (me, I'm subject A :-)) :

And Subject B (But who is subject B ?) :

So it seems as if Google, inadvertently through its algorithm and the personnalisation it allows, has unlocked a powerful key to that could enable us to compare individuals : The Google Personnality Index (GPI) is a qualitative index showing who you are based on your search results for various topics. Comparing your GPI to another person's GPI shows how distant or close your Personnality is from hers.

Google might be on its way to becoming the shrink of the future or, better yet, the couple matching application of tomorrow: If Google knows exactly what your search results are, couldn't it match you with someone who has the same results for the same request and could hence be most likely to enjoy a discussion with you ? The truth is actually that this kind of predictive software is on its way. Internet applications know so much about us that they could probably predict with more accuracy than we could which trip or club or item or movie or person we might enjoy the most ... To all developpers out there, here's your sign that the future can now be unleashed

But the rise of this GPI and extreme personnalisation is being done at the expense of randomness. THe beautiful randomness of the web. We all want relevant search results but shouldn't we also be alerted of the human, social, political dimension of the things we are searching for ?

The internet is becoming more and more a tailor-fit information serving. But as Fraser puts it : "Nobody wants a web of one ?" Right ?

The theory of the centripetal Internet : How globalizing is social media ?

Facebook and similar websites took our social life to the cloud. They digitized it. It feels as if we chose to offshore that thing we call "social life" to a country that goes by the name of "The Internet". And if the Internet does have a globalizing effect (Argument n°1), it might mean that social digital media will also have a globalizing effect (Argument n°2). Only Argument n°1 is ... arguable. One brilliant TED talk by Ethan Zuckerman (that has the effect of a cold bucket of water thrown on the back of any Web over-excited Aficionado) reminds us of how un-optimal the globailizing effect of the Web is

[ted id=916]

One might even wonder if the web isn't un-globalizing the world by making it easier for each and every one to access more easily only the information he's been wanting to access : His own, his area's, his country's. Yes, the Internet does open up horizons, just as low-cost flights open up the horizons of infinite, numerous trips. But do we really grasp these cheap trip opportunities ? Do we really check what's happening in Mongolia that often just because, now, it's possible ?

And what if I told you that in five years Chinese will be the dominant language of the Web ? Will you start learning Mandarin or will you just hope most of what you read will stay in the same language ?

Are we local by nature ? Do we prefer proximity ?

I've been looking at the map of online communities lately :

2007

2010

Isn't it crazy how much it has changed ?

It feels like we're seeing civilizations like the Mayas and the Aztecs and the Incas rise and fall but instead of it happening over hundreds of years, it's happening in the course of two to three years ! Our civilization has moved online ! And you might be a national of many of the countries shown above : Both a farmviller and a twitterer and a Facebooker right ?

But inside every nation, you can bet that the clusters of friends and network are pretty near geographically. Let me repeat this : Geographically yes. THE INTERNET IS A CENTREPETAL FORCE, not centrifugal. It strenghtens communities, it doesn't open them up. So back to my question. Are we local by nature ? Do we prefer proximity ? I may not be sure but I do know this :

"Proximity overpowers similarity" as Gladwell puts it in "The Tipping Point". The nearer we are to those who are like us, the more we will tend to interact with them. In other terms, 10 years ago, for you to overcome that tendency to chat/mail/speak/share/communicate with those who are like you, I would have had to put you in a jungle with Amazonian indians (unless you are an Amazonian indian reading this blog), far from every person you know

Only today it would be useless : The Internet makes it so you can still chat/mail/speak/share/communicate whatever your new environment. Eventually you'll meet new people. But the web roots you in your original community in a way. Because your community is in the cloud ! And you are too !

Peter Warden showed how community clusters formed in the US over Facebook :

But more incredibly, a Facebook data intern has shown the world how similar it is online than it is in reality when it comes to social links :

The whiter the line the more the links and Facebook friendships. Does it look familiar ? Some migt say it's only natural that the social web reflects our social world. I agree. But what I'd like to know is how this map above will change in the years to come. Will it become all white with links covering the seas and the oceans or will it evolve into the exact same map of our world as new users start using Facebook ?

My question is simple really : Is the Web a mirror of our society or the trend-turned-tool-turned-phenomenon that will change it from within ?

Anchors everywhere !

Here is an incredible book : "Predictably irrational" which every person interested by markets and especially every one into marketing should read after closing "The Tipping point" Dan Ariely talks about ANchors at one point, that influence our opinion about prices. Sometimes random numbers we encounter could do the trick but practically, the first prices we see for a given item become our anchors. So it's because you saw an HP for $ 999.99 that you feel the $ 799.99 Acer is cheap and the $ 1199.99 Sony Vaio is expensive. But thinking about it : Anchors are everywhere really

We have anchors when it comes to our opinion about people. If someone told you that Mr. Person-You-Haven't-Met-Yet is a great person,there is every chance that this idea has anchored in you and will serve as a reference when you build your opinion about that person. THis "great person" criteria willthen serve as a means of comparison and classification and other persons will hance be classified as "more great" than Mr. PYHMY or "less great".

But more importantly I believe anchors' influence depends on the person, the institution and the conditions that've fixed them (and this I derive from "The Tipping Point" approach about how trends form). Hence, if it's a cool-kid type of person you know that've qualified Mr. PYHMY as a "great person", you are more likely to stock to that pinion that if it's a why-do-I-even-listen-to-this-person type of individual.

Google searches and the science that resides behind your screens

Isn't it dazzling the number of things we' ve stopped keeping track of ? Our bookmarks, our read mails, our Facebook friends, people we're following on Twitter, our number of tweets, the number of times we've been to website A or B, our Google searches ... But no need to worry, someone has been keeping track

You've noticed how accurate Amazon's book recommendations have become since you've joined in. How your YouTube homepage shows videos you're actually likely to watch, how ads on the side of your Facebook page have become relevant (or not). Every click you've done, every page you've viewed, every song you've liked, every book you've added to your cart then decided not to buy, every single move you've made while on these sites ad their likes are still there. You've left an indelible trail. But nothing frightening there really.

These firms have leveraged this information (the data path you've left behind or click trail) to get more personal, closer but most of all more comprehensive of your needs and responsive to your potential hunches. But still, one line had not been crossed. Until now. Let's call it the Nanoeconomic line. Nanoeconomics is the human-scale economics that tries to better the understanding of the economy using Public Massive Passive Social Data.

The latest striking application being the use of Massive Passive trails of "Google searches" data to predict ... stock Market moves.

Thanks to your humble servant, you may already know that Twitter has proved able to enhance financial forecasting models. But now if you add to this that every time you showed interest in a company, Google remembered, the panel of available tools widens dramatically :

  1. Not only do we have the sentiment, the mood that affects the market on a macro level (thanks to Twitter)
  2. But we also have a way to understand on a company stock level, a micro level, any interest that has arisen ... in real time (using a publicly available tool such as Google trend)

In other terms, that same process, that Nanoeconomic toolkit we now have, can enrich Economic science's understanding of the world, the way individual thoughts and interests move before affecting the economy and the financial market as a whole or even individual company stocks.

So here goes a case study. Here is Apple's stock price and the number of 'Google Searches' evolution since 2004 :

The increase in both the stock price (above) and the number of Google searches (below) is a sign of a certain coherence, a modest proof that the reasoning is sound. But it is far from satisfactory. A common trend is obvious and observing that brings nothing to the table.

What might be more interesting however, and confirm our logic are punctual, similarly specific changes : spikes in other terms. And if we look in both graphs towards the end of the year 2007, we see exactly that : a common movement. Even more interesting, the spike in interest for Apple as shown by Google trend seems to precede the strong increase in its stock price at the very end of 2007.

This is beautiful to see. Strangely. Realizing that every time you search for a company, every time you show interest for something (as shown in the apple graph below), somehow, the real world may end up being affected (the apple graph above). As if these two lines draw not only trends and prices but mirror the very movement that underlays the way each of our decisions eventually stirs the world.

PS : Very special thanks to the truly amazing Mr M A H without whom this article would have never existed. Thank you sir

Malcolm Galdwell Vs Dan Dennett

Here he goes again : Galdwell's ideas sort of branch throughout lots of what I've read and met and what I read and meet lately. And especially this :

One reason why it is worth fighting for the establishment of a proper new discipline in Economics, namely Nanoeconomics, focusing on a Human-Scale approach and a sourcing of massive passive social data is that individuals today matter more than ever. They are Super-individuals. Their Impact Potential is nothing like it was three years ago. A simple example is this :

" RED is an EXC-ELL-ENT movie, go see it !! NOW !! "

This could've been my status for the day if I hadn't anything else to say. But the idea is that this status would've actually convinced a bunch of the members of my hesitating Facebook and Twitter entourage to actually go see the movie, because they trust their friend and being empathic beingsm they can see he REA-LLY liked the movie.

I could've told my friends some years ago about a movie I loved but :

  1. The instant expression : Without these statuses where I can communicate instantly, I could've forgotten to tell my friends
  2. The loud lasting expression : I might have not been able to express it SO ENTHU-THIASTI-CALLY and keep it posted so long
  3. The reaching expression : My reach would not have been so wide at any given time since even my Japanese friends got the message

So we're empowered. Great. So why the title ?

Because what is power without anyone to feel it, without the world being affected by it. Memes are one of the manifestation of one's power (as in this latest example that's REA-LLY worth looking at : Boxxy). Dan Dennett approaches the subject just as Galdwell does :

" What's a virus? A virus is a string of nucleic acid with attitude. That is, there is something about it that tends to make it replicate better than the competition does.And that's what a meme is; an information packet with attitude."

[ted id=116]

Contagion. This is what links Galdwell to Bennett. Contagion is at the basis of the Super-Individual's power today. It is how one reaches not just one's direct surrounding but also the distant observer. But what Bennett adds however, and what made me think, is that just as the viruses conquistadors brought with them wiped out the native people of America, memes, ideas today, are generated in specific places spreading in the entire world, affecting virtually everybody making a tale of survival all over again with the most powerful Super-Individual's influencing all the others.

And that is where I wonder : Where is the tipping point ? When will things tip in a way that one paradigm, one set of idea, will prevail, will become the definitive reference ? Did it already happen ? Is it being reversed ? Where in hell is the world of ideas on the Tipping scale ?

Until an answer starts showing, go see RED ;)

Malcolm Galdwell VS Steven Levitt

So here's the deal : In "The Tipping Point" Galdwell says the fall in the levels of criminality in New York in the 1990s is due to an "anti-crime behavior virus" that spread through the community and lead to the miraculously fast decrease in crime

Levitt however, in his and Dubner's book "Freakonomics", says it is due to a pro-contraception law that was passed in the state 20 years ago causing all potential criminals of the 1990s never to be born in the first place in precarious conditions. Hence, crime having no labor, it decreased dramatically.

This is one of the issues where you can't answer saying that both are right. I'm voting for Levitt to be honest. I think the "epidemics" approach doesn't work in all cases. I'm still waiting to see how Galdwell digs into details to explain this in "The Tipping Point" but I'm going for Levitt right now.

Knowtex Interview

Big thanks to Gayane Adourian for a great interview  about TEDx Paris Universities and Nanoeconomics I hope this brings some sense to all you see on the Nanoeconomics blog

You are going to get dumped right about ... now

The single biggest challenge when crunching numbers is to make sense out of the figures. But when presenting data, the challenge is to make its understanding intuitive. Data structures, Information design, Data visualization, the study of computational complexity are all fields that have been sky-rocketing since the data deluge started. And many have proved that data can be sexy, that information is beautiful. David McCandless is one of the maestros of this trend.

 

[ted id=937]

 

But what's in all this revolution to you ? Well actually, thanks to David and his team, you now have a graph showing your likelihood to get dumped at any time of the year. Using 10,000 Facebook status updates and looking for patterns related to relations and break ups, they found, well, that your best chances of getting dumped are ... in roughly 3 weeks. So brace yourself people !

 

As you can see, the numbers go down on Christmas. Nobody's that cruel to hand this as a Christmas gift. But lots of people are drama-cruel enough to do it on Valentine's Day (!) and miserably funny enough to do it on April's fool day (!!).

Nanoeconomics is not a word ... It's a world

Of course, Nanoeconomics is all based on collecting and analyzing massive passive social data in order to better understand society and help enhance social sciences. But beyond the business-minded, practical or even academic use of it, Nanoeconomics has a scope wide enough to encompass the poetical side of things. The calm smiling violent bloody reality that fixes you in the eye and says i love/hate you [ted id=316]

Go to the We feel fine page and don't stop browsing before you find the incredibly colorful galaxy below that Jonathan Harris and Sep Kamvar helped unveil

Nanoeconomics smiles back at you. Can you imagine finally having a pair of binoculars in your hands to look at the world that's been rocking you, that is rocking you, that will keep rocking you as it did from to the cradle until you get to the grave. Smile on